The fall in global oil and gas prices will reduce the Papua New Guinea government’s revenue by at least K1.1 billion in 2016. A new Budget strategy is needed, argue economists Stephen Howe and Paul Flanagan, who suggest a solution may lie in the government selling its Oil Search shares.
Despite much that is good in the 2015 Budget, the Papua New Guinea government’s medium-term fiscal plans are a concern, writes Paul Flanagan, former senior executive in the Australian Treasury, and advisor to the PNG Treasury from 2011 to 2013.
The Papua New Guinea economy is on the edge of a ‘slippery slope’, if the Bank of PNG finances government debt and continues to fix the exchange rate at too high a rate. Former Australian Treasury advisor Paul Flanagan says compounding the problems are rising inflation, falling foreign exchange reserves, and declining private sector credit growth.