What does the 2026 PNG 100 CEO Survey tell us?

The 2026 PNG 100 CEO Survey provides an optimistic outlook for the Papua New Guinean economy.

“With forex no longer a major concern, unreliable utilities have surged to become the biggest issue facing PNG businesses.”

Here are the four key highlights Westpac has identified from the survey:

1. PNG business conditions are better than average

Westpac combines the survey’s various indicators of business conditions into the Business Conditions Index, where 50 represents the long-run average.

In 2026, the Business Conditions Index rose to 62.5, the highest level since 63.5 in 2023, which also remains the alltime high for the index.

During the COVID-19 period of 2020 to 2021, Business Conditions fell below 50. More troubling, however, was the decline to 44.7 in 2024, following a worse-than-expected profit outcome for 2023. It is therefore encouraging to see reported Business Conditions continue to improve entering 2026.

If policy, fiscal and regulatory reform continues, there is potential for economic growth in 2026 to exceed expectations.

2. Reliability of utilities is the most critical issue

In our analysis of last year’s survey, Westpac noted the rising concern about the reliability of utilities.

At that time, only foreign exchange availability ranked higher as a critical issue.

In 2026, with forex no longer a major concern, unreliable utilities have surged to become the biggest issue facing PNG businesses.

Average concern about utilities is higher than in 2025, though still below the peak reached in 2024. This should not be interpreted as evidence that utilities have become more reliable. Rather, the share of firms identifying utilities as a mission-critical issue has risen sharply to 56 per cent, up from 46 per cent in 2025 and well above the all-time low of 3 per cent in 2018.

We suspect that the lower overall concern reflects PNG businesses adapting to ongoing constraints, rather than any meaningful improvement in service reliability.

While business resilience in the face of adversity is encouraging, unreliable utilities remain a major constraint on both current economic activity and longer-term economic development. Unlocking PNG’s full economic potential will require meaningful improvements in utility reliability, making this a critical policy priority.

3. Outlook improves despite softer hiring intentions

Actual profit outcomes in 2025 exceeded expectations by a significant margin, a look at the previous year’s survey shows.

Against this backdrop, it is unsurprising that profit expectations strengthened further in 2026. While profit expectations last year were only marginally above average, they are now around 10 per cent higher than the long-run average.

Improving profit expectations have been accompanied by stronger investment intentions, with the Investment Expectations Index rising 6 per cent over the year to sit almost 20 per cent above its long-run average. In contrast, recruitment intentions declined by 6 per cent, which is disappointing given the more favourable business environment.

Nevertheless, at 56, the Recruitment Expectations Index remains more than 7 per cent above its long-run average, suggesting non-mineral employment can continue to grow in 2026, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025.

4. Rising business expectations point to stronger economic growth

Westpac combines profit, investment and recruitment expectations into the Business Expectations Index, where 50 represents the long-run average.

In 2026, the Business Expectations Index rose to 68, up from 59 in 2025, marking the highest reading since 69 in 2023 and standing 25 per cent above the long-run average.

When combined with the improvement in the Business Conditions Index, the 2026 survey suggests that PNG CEOs broadly share Westpac’s expectation that economic growth will strengthen in 2026. Our current forecast is for GDP growth of 4.3 per cent in 2026.

We are in the process of upgrading PNG’s growth outlook, as a final investment decision on Papua LNG appears closer.

Should the project proceed as expected, we anticipate GDP growth to exceed 5 per cent, driven primarily by forex inflows, infrastructure development and construction activity, alongside an optimistic production outlook from resources companies amid favourable global prices.

This article was first published in the 2026 edition of the Business Advantage PNG Annual. You can read the full issue here. You can also request a copy of the PNG 100 CEO Survey results here.