A deliberate and surprise move by MPs and Ministers to the Opposition last Friday may foreshadow the end of the 18-month-old Marape Government in Papua New Guinea.

Opposition benches before and after the defections on Friday 13 November. Images: EMTV

There were extraordinary scenes in Parliament last Friday as MPs and reportedly up to 12 Ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister Sam Basil, moved to the Opposition benches.

The move, which was followed by a successful vote to adjourn Parliament until 1 December, places the government led by Prime Minister James Marape in jeopardy, with a vote-of-no-confidence permitted after 30 November under PNG law.

Any motion for a vote-of-no-confidence must propose an alternative Prime Minister.

‘We have taken PNG back, but we have taken it backwards’

Speaking to media at the Crown Hotel, Port Moresby, later in the day, Opposition Leader Belden Namah claimed that the Opposition now had the support of 61 of the country’s 111 MPs and would form a new government. He called on Prime Minister Marape to resign.

Namah and other party leaders assembled at the hotel, including former Prime Ministers Peter O’Neill and Sir Julius Chan, highlighted the economic downturn, the prolonged closure of the Porgera gold mine and delays over new gas projects as key reasons for their intervention.

‘We have taken PNG back, but we have taken it backwards,’ claimed Sam Basil. The Opposition has now set up camp in Vanimo.

Fighting on

The Prime Minister had earlier stated his intention to fight on at his own media conference.

‘I am not finished in politics yet, now or into the future,’ he later posted to social media. He also moved to reassure people the business of government would continue in spite of the political situation.

‘Government programmes will function as usual. This includes rolling out 2020 budgeted items to outstanding State contractors, liabilities, and ensuring districts and provincial programmes are funded, passing the balance of K100 million for SME fundings to National Development Bank, paying out public service salaries and etc.

Reforms in doubt

The adjournment of the current session of Parliament means the country’s 2021 National Budget, which was expected to be delivered by Treasurer Ian Ling-Stuckey on 17 November, is also postponed.

Prime Minister James Marape addressing the media after the adjournment of Parliament. Credit: NBC

It also means some notable business and investment-related reforms flagged by the Marape government are now clouded in uncertainty until the political landscape becomes clearer. These include a long-awaited revision of the Investment Promotion Authority Act.

It is also now unclear if the proposed Organic Law on Papua New Guinea’s Ownership and Development of Hydrocarbons and Minerals and the Commercialisation of State Businesses 2020, flagged by Kerenga Kua, Minister for Petroleum and Energy, will go ahead. Notice had already been given for the Organic Law, which requires extra sittings, longer time periods and high majorities in order to be passed.

However, several Opposition speakers on Friday spoke out against the proposed new organic law, placing it in doubt if a new government is formed in December.

Papua LNG

While some legislation is now in question, the current parliamentary session has already seen the passing of two notable tranches of legislation: an Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) Act, which was passed last Thursday with bipartisan support, and enabling legislation for the Total-led Papua LNG gas project.

The latter legislation is seen as an essential precursor to the commencement of the US$10 billion project, set to be PNG’s second major gas project.

This week, Prime Minister Marape said a ‘high level delegation of Total officials will be visiting the country to work with the Government and all its partners’ in coming weeks to progress the project.

It is not yet clear how the changed political situation may influence this visit. This week’s planned visit to PNG of Australia’s Prime Minister, Scott Morrison has been cancelled. The Australian newspaper reports that Morrison was due to announce AUD$142 million (KK362 million) in budgetary support for PNG and the rollover of an existing AUD$442 million (K1.12 billion) loan during his visit.

Porgera negotiations

The political upheaval also raises questions about the fate of negotiations to reopen the Porgera gold mine.

By coincidence, the CEO of Barrick Gold, Mark Bristow, was in PNG last week. In a statement, the Porgera Joint Venture, of which Barrick is lead partner, said the visit has been organised ‘in good faith under a joint agreement between Prime Minister Marape and Mr Bristow which committed to negotiations relating to the restart of the Porgera mine.’

During his current visit, Bristow met with Prime Minister Marape, government ministers, Enga Governor Sir Peter Ipatas, the State Negotiating Team and Porgera landowners.

The mine, which closed in April, remains in care and maintenance mode while negotiations over its reopening continue.